Early Oscar predictions by HS

Note that the nominations haven't even been announced yet, but I'm having some fun here anyway.


Best Picture: The hardest category to predict, with this year seeing it expand to 10 nominees.  Right now it's a three-way race between Up in the Air, Avatar, and The Hurt Locker.  At this point (January 10th) I'm leaning towards The Hurt Locker - it's been awhile since a war movie has won, and director Kathryn Bigelow's strong chances in the Direction category boost the film's chances here also.

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker.  A woman has never won this prize, and momentum is in Bigelow's corner for helming such an intense film.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart.  I haven't seen this yet, but he's due, and for added effect, he plays a musician and sings his own songs.  That ALMOST ALWAYS works (see Marion Cotillard, Catherine Zeta Jones, Reese Witherspoon, and Jamie Foxx just within the past decade).

Best Actress: Meryl Streep for Julie and Julia.  She's won twice before, but the last time was more than 25 years ago!  Her late-career resurgence that essentially began with The Devil Wears Prada three years ago only boosts her chances.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz for Inglorious Basterds.  Lately, the Oscars have been kind to portrayals of villains, and Waltz should continue that trend.  Besides, everyone wants to reward Tarantino without acting giving him the biggest prizes (Picture or Director), and in a smaller category such as this one, they have their chance.

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'nique for Precious: This acclaimed film's best Oscar chances lie with Mo'nique, playing the best screen "villainess" since Kathy Bates in Misery.





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Not bad, but...

MH's picture

I'm not convinced that Hurt Locker will win Best Picture/Director - the Academy's kind of had a disconnect from films that are popular and well-loved by audiences for the last several years (nothing against films like Crash, No Country for Old Men or Slumdog Millionare, but they weren't exactly huge audience favorites), and Hurt Locker is a critics' favorite that only grossed about $12 million domestically.  Meanwhile, Avatar's gotten solid reviews and has broken box-office records left and right, and if it gets a Best Picture nomination it'll be the first film that's grossed more then $200 million domesically to do so since Return of the King 6 years ago.  The Academy doesn't want to seem more out of touch then they already do (the reason they're doing 10 nominees this year is cause popular favorites such as The Dark Knight and Wall-E weren't nominated last year), so I can easily see them naming Avatar Best Picture and/or naming James Cameron Best Director and giving Hurt Locker a screenplay Oscar or something.

Of course, if this does happen people will say the same thing they did when Titanic beat LA Confidential (and Forrest Gump beat Pulp Fiction, etc), but if Hurt Locker wins they'll say the same thing they did when Annie Hall beat Star Wars, Gandhi beat ET, etc...


Good point, the academy has to make themselves look good...

TMundo's picture

...in their choices.  I guess.  It's not about what is the best film, it's about how people's reaction to the academy's choice effects the academy, I don't know.

The Academy

HS's picture

I also think their decision to expand the Best Picture category had to do with pressure from the TV networks.  Only when big films like Titanic receive major nominations are the ratings big.  Last year, the most well-known major nominee, Slumdog, was half in Hindi subtitles.  Sure, it went on to become a hit but the Oscar telecast itself bombed big time (IIRC it was the lowest-rated EVER).  With Avatar and Up (and who knows, maybe even Star Trek) on the nominee list, viewership will rise also.  It doesn't really matter who wins the big prize - Avatar will most likely win enough smaller Oscars to keep people watching until the eleventh hour (or, in Oscar's case, the fourth hour).  But who knows - maybe the momentum will shift as the air date grows closer.



Are you going to spend 4 hours watching the Oscars?

Coaster's picture

Anoyone who would spend 4 hours watching the Oscars, or any awards show, needs to seriously examine thier own life. 

Bill Murray should get best supporting actor for "Zomieland"

Rajah's picture

The dying scene alone is Oscar worthy!


TMundo's picture

You switched the 'b' with an 'm'  and I'm guessing you were working your way towards 'w'

Rajah's head a muddled with thoughts of pure unadulterated white women.

btw, what's your opinion of Leslie Mann?

Butting in.

HS's picture

I haven't seen Zombieland, heard it was pretty funny.  I know your Leslie Mann question was directed at Rajah, but I'll interject to say I thought she was way cute in The Cable Guy, though she's aged quite a bit since then.



See, I'd have never recognised her, long hair works wonders

TMundo's picture

...I just love em with long hair.


Rajah's picture

insert where needed


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