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Did you or someone you know buy the survey results at Zogby? None of the free information they released on the site seems to have much to do with your electoral college prediction, but I do see they are offering more details for sale. That's the kind of information I've been looking for: state-by-state polls for president, because, as I've said before, even if Kerry's ahead 60 to 40 in national polls, all Bush has to do is win all the states he won last time and the popular vote won't matter.
Frankly, I think the election is far too close to call, just as it was in 2000 at not only this point but the day before the election. Most polls at the time had Bush with a 2-3 point lead, but in reality he ended up losing the popular vote by about a point, while still winning the electoral college by the skin of his teeth. I think there's a pretty good chance of that happening this time, too, although an Ohio shift would change things. Still, though, what states do you see Bush winning this time that he didn't before, because you're giving him a substantial lead in the electoral college vs. his skin-of-his-teeth victory in 2000.
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