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"Green Mile" is probably running second behind "American Beauty" as most likely BP nominees, and it's far more financially successful than your top 5 choices. After seeing the Director's Guild nominations for their award, I'm willing to admit that "Talented Mr. Ripley" may well have lost some momentum -- originally I had it 2nd in order of likelihood, but now things aren't looking so grand, though I'm still willing to bet my right toe it gets a nomination. (Fortunately, I won't be around when you guys come to collect.) And I'd still go with "The Insider" as the fourth choice -- nothing about today's environment has changed my mind about that. But whether "Being John Malkovich" or "The Sixth Sense" or even "The Hurricane" would be the fifth -- I'm still up in the air about that. If forced to choose, I'd take "BJM" -- but it will be hard for the Academy to overlook $265M in ticket sales from a good quality movie -- that'd really boost their ratings (which were almost the worst ever last year when they had 4 artsy low-gross films [till "SIL" actually won the Oscar] and the anti-family bloodfest $200M film that was "Saving Private Ryan"). I doubt they really take ratings into consideration when making their choices, but I have no doubt they take popularity into consideration. As for "The Hurricane" -- I don't know about that one. That one seems all performance. It'd probably be 7th on my list of choices, if forced to choose.
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