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War on Terror Update
Confidence in War on Terror Near Highest Level of Bush’s
Second Term
Thursday, November 29, 2007
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Confidence in the War on Terror increased for the fourth straight month in November and is now near the highest level of President Bush’s second term in office.
The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll finds that 47% of Americans now say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror (see crosstabs). That’s up from 43% a month ago and reflects is the highest level of confidence measured since December 2005. Over the past 35 months, confidence in the War on Terror has been higher than today only twice, in November and December 2005.
The 47% who believe the U.S. and its allies are winning is up significantly from earlier in the year. During the first nine months of 2007, the number believing that the U.S. fell as low as 33% and reached the 40% level just once. During calendar year 2006, an average of 40% believed the U.S. and its allies were winning. That average was 45% in 2005.
In what may be just as significant a finding, only 24% of voters now believe the terrorists are winning. That’s down from 30% a month ago and represents the lowest level of pessimism recorded since 2004.
The Rasmussen Reports telephone survey also found that 35% of all American voters expect things to get better in Iraq over the next six months while 32% expect the situation to get worse. That’s the first time in years that a plurality has given a positive assessment on the situation in Iraq. The recent increase in optimism is substantial. Just four months ago, in July, 49% of American voters offered a pessimistic assessment of the situation in Iraq and only 23% expected things to get better.
While the figures reflect growing optimism overall, a gender gap remains. Fifty-five percent (55%) of men believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror along with just 39% of women. Men, by a 45% to 28% margin, expect things to get better in Iraq over the next six months. Women, by a 35% to 26% margin, expect things to get worse.
There is also a significant difference in partisan perceptions. Seventy-three percent (73%) believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. That view is shared by 24% of Democrats and 47% of those not affiliated with either major political party.
Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Democrats believe the terrorists are winning. Just 21% of unaffiliateds and 10% of Republicans share that view.
Overall, 36% now believe the American mission in Iraq will ultimately be judged a success while 44% say the history books will judge the long engagement a failure. In July, the view was decidedly more pessimistic. At that time, just 27% thought history would consider the mission a success while 56% took the opposite view.
Partisan assessments of U.S. foreign policy success remain sharply divided. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Republicans are optimistic about the short-term in Iraq, versus just 12% of Democrats.
President Bush hasn’t gotten much credit for the increased optimism. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Americans say he has done a Good or an Excellent job handling the situation in Iraq. That’s down from 30% a month ago.
Forty-nine percent (49%) say the President has done a poor job handling the situation in Iraq, down a point from 50% a month ago.
See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs and Historical Data available for Premium Members only.
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