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CBS and Gallup lately having been using 'likely voters' instead of 'registered voters.' Who is likely to vote changes from week to week. The only time that can really be counted as a true picture is on the eve before the election. Eventhough though these polls are conducted in random fashion, the republican voters have been energized by the convention and are therefore more are more likely now to show up in likely voters category than before. That is likely to roll off in the next couple of weeks as the charm of the convention goes away.
If you look at http://www.electoral-vote.com and go through the reports for the early part of September, you can see that the results flip around an enormous amount both ways. That's because this is still a horse race. Bush doesn't have anywhere near a commanding lead as some suggest. In fact, Bush is in deep trouble if history is a guide. All incumbent presidents that were reelected as long as the polls have been taken have lead by at least 20% in the polls by labor day. The largest lead Bush had was 5%.
http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp? c=biJRJ8OVF&b=187059
Any news organization that implies that this race is over is just being irresponsible.
HC
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