They claim to be the best predictor for the Oscars, but really, they only match up about 40-60% of the time. The NBR is made up of a group of academics and elitists, and many of them have no relation to Hollywood or the Academy.
However, almost all their winners at least make it to a best picture nominee. A few others got significant nominations (screenplay + director), and only one got shut out all together (Roman Polanski's "Macbeth").
Most recent winners were: "Good Night, and Good Luck", "Finding Neverland", "Mystic River", "The Hours", "Moulin Rouge!", "Quills", "American Beauty", "Gods and Monsters", "LA Confidential", and "Shine".
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