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Taking a break from analyzing mentally unstable people all day, I'll analyze whether famous mentally unstable people will take a phallic little golden statue and cry, then thank their lawyer.
(Note to the primaries posters: haha! As I live in Pennsylvania, for once I get to play an important role in who gets nominated for the Democrat candidate, if Hillary decides to drag this out another 2 months)
Alright... first, with the main event:
Best Picture: I to figure out the odds according to the top correlating factors, assigning a score to each movie.
-Most nominations (8 pts): "No Country for Old Men", "There Will Be Blood" -DGA Winner (7): "No Country for Old Men" -Producers Guild Award Winner (6): "No Country for Old Men" -Most nominations in the top categories (5): "Michael Clayton" -Biggest hit (4): "Juno" -Golden Globe winner for Best Drama (3): "Atonement" -Ties to Miramax and/or the Weinsteins (2): "No Country for Old Men", "There Will Be Blood" -SAG Best Ensemble Award (1): "No Country for Old Men"
Tally: "No Country for Old Men" (24), "There Will Be Blood" (10), "Michael Clayton" (5), "Juno" (4), "Atonement" (3).
Thus, my prediction: "No Country for Old Men" will continue the unorthodox line of Oscar winners of the past few years. Alternate: "There Will Be Blood".
-Best director: The Coens. We all love them, they are way overdue, competing against guys who are merely on their first, second, or third film, plus Paul Thomas Anderson. The latter is their stiffest competition, and thus my Alternate.
-Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. No question. Alternate: Johnny Depp.
-Best Actress: Marion Cotillard. I'll take a risk in that this will be the surprise Oscar. Call me crazy. The alternate is the sure bet: Julie Christie.
-Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem. Alternate: Casey Affleck. Or will Hal Holbrook get the "Get One Before It's Too Late" Oscar? And Tom Wilkison has been building up industry credit, plus turns in a great performance. Harder guess, but Bardem has been snubbed for great performances before.
-Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan. Alternate: Cate Blanchett. I don't care what SAG did with Ruby Dee.
-Original Screenplay: "Juno". One of these goes to the 'cool' movie of the year, the other one tends to go to one of the big winners. Alternate: "Michael Clayton".
-Adapted Screenplay: "No Country for Old Men". Despite some questionable choices in what they left in and what they left out, this one is the more popular screenplay. Alternate: "There Will Be Blood".
-Cinematography: Roger Deakins for "No Country for Old Men". This is the toughest competition of all - they all have a good shot. I choose Deakins because: a) Voters often give this one to the same film that wins the director award; b) he's nominated twice; c) this is his 8th nomination with no win, compared to first timers and previous winners among the competition. Alternate: "There Will Be Blood", although seriously, Janusz Kaminski has equal chance of picking up another one for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly".
-Editing: "Bourne Ultimatum". Alternate: "No Country for Old Men".
-Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd". Alt: "The Golden Compass".
-Costume: "Elizabeth: The Golden Age". Alt: "Atonement", since everyone loves Keira's dress.
-Make-up: "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End". Alt: "The Vie en Rose".
-Score: "3:10 to Yuma". "Atonement" and "The Kite Runner" have similar scores. Alternate: "Ratatouille".
-Sound: "No Country for Old Men". Alt: "Transformers".
-Sound Editing: "Transformers". Alt: "Ratatouille".
-FX: "Transformers". Alt: "Pirates of the Caribbean 3".
-Foreign Film: "Katyn". Who saw these? I'll go for "Katyn" due to its obviously being placed there for fondness of its director. Alt: "The Counterfeiters".
-Animated Movie: "Ratatouille". Alt: "Persepolis".
-Documentary: "Sicko". Alt: "No End in Sight".
-Original Song: "Once". Alt: one of the "Enchanted" songs, I suppose.
-Shorts: whatever. Random predictions:
Animated short: "I Meet the Walrus"
Live Action: "Ill Supplente"
Documentary short: "Sari's Mother".
Most wins: "No Country for Old Men".
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