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Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind: 10. He will be nominated. No discussion.
Kevin Kline, Life As A House: 3.5. Too much competition, the film was pretty much ignored, and Kline's role is a rip-off of Kevin Spacey's character in "American Beauty".
Sean Penn, I Am Sam: 7.6. Sean Penn is trying to convince everyone he's an artist. People playing mentally deficient characters are popular with the Academy.
Denzel Washington, Training Day: 8.9. Everyone Loves Denzel. And he's being nominated by every award group. Plus, everyone thinks Denzel deserves a Best Actor Oscar. Just don't count on him winning.
Tom Wilkinson, In The Bedroom: 8.5. Sissy Spacek is getting most of the attention, but this guy isn't far behind. The movie is also a serious Best Picture possibility.
Other guys with a good chance of getting nominated: Billy Bob Thornton, Will Smith (will the Academy nominate 2 black actors? Interesting...).
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Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball: 9.0. She's picking a lot of steam lately.
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind: 5.0. Likely to be placed in supporting actress category, where competition is lighter (I'll call it the Benicio Del Toro phenomenon). However, she has a 9.5 chance of nomination in either category overall.
Judi Dench, Iris: 6.5. The Academy loves Judi Dench, but... this film is being mostly ignored.
Sissy Spacek, In The Bedroom: 10. No doubt, she will be nominated.
Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Diary: 6.0. Not many are impressed by Zellwegger on a general viewpoint, and actresses are usually not nominated for comedic roles (at least not in the lead actress category).
Others likely: Nicole Kidman (that's a shoo-in; now, for what movie, that's another case), Audrey Tautou, Tilda Swinton. ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role
Jim Broadbent, Iris: 7.0. Broadbent isn't terribly well known in the US, and this film is being mostly ignored.
Hayden Christensen, Life As A House: 6.6. The young jedi got good reviews, and there may be a push to get him nominated to boost the "Episode II" hype. But not everyone may take him seriously enough, due to his age.
Ethan Hawke, Training Day: 3.0. Hawke is alright, but not good enough. Also, he's the lead character in the film, not Denzel, technically speaking (if you believe that there can only be one lead character in a film).
Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast: 9.0. Ol' Mahatma has a high Kevin Bacon score, is well respected, and has some of the best acting reviews of the year.
Ian McKellen, The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring: 8.5. Everyone Loves Gandalf. And "Rings" (a definite Oscar Best Picture nominee) will need some acting nomination to back its credibility up. Besides, everyone knows McKellen got snubbed for "Gods and Monsters".
Others likely: Steve Buscemi, Jon Voight (he's been gunning hard this year to get recognition through small roles, but I think he will be snubbed). ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, Bandits: Blanchett being nominated: 8.7. For this film: 7.0. I see her as a more likely nominee for "The Shipping News".
Judi Dench, The Shipping News: 7.0. It's the required "Judi Dench in a Miramax end of the year movie supporting actress" nomination.
Cameron Diaz, Vanilla Sky: 5.0. People are nominating her just out of lack of thinking who else should be nominated. And, let's face it: Diaz's performance was merely adequate, not good.
Dakota Fanning, I Am Sam: 7.5. On one hand, the Academy loves to nominate child actors in supporting roles, every couple of years. On the other hand, many will not take her seriously, since she is 7.
Helen Mirren, Gosford Park: 6.0. Few other than Altman fanatic critics are impressed with this flick. Mirren is a very good actress, but this performance hasn't made that many waves.
Others likely: Jeniffer Connelly, Marissa Tomei (a definite contender if "In the Bedroom" gets a Best Picture nomination). ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Theatrical Motion Picture (I'll correlate this to best picture)
The cast of A Beautiful Mind (10. Definite nominee)
The cast of Gosford Park (6. Only Altman is getting recognition for the film, due to being who he is, and nothing else).
The cast of In The Bedroom (9. Has lost some of its steam in the last couple of days, but still runs strong)
The cast of Moulin Rouge (9. A controversial nomination - the flick has more detractors than any other nominee - that is more marketing and hype than anything else, plus a relatively small group of fans)
The cast of The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring (10. Screw Ebert & Roeper - who have zero influence on nominations - this film has more popularity than any of the other flicks, will get nominated in all the technical departments, and will fill the required blockbuster slot).
Others: "Memento", "The Shipping News", "Monters' Ball" (a weak chance, though), "Amelie", and write your name here.
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