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I remember in 1991 we were watching Goose warm up in the bullpen at Camden Yards (he was w/ the Oakland A's then) and my friend yelled, "Hey Goose! Hall of Fame, baby!" Goose had no reaction. Well, turns out he was right. One thing that wasn't cool was yelling "MEAT!!!" when the other A's pitchers were warming up. The O's lost the game.
I thought Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven were already in the hall....I guess just based on their name recognition.
Brady Anderson? Forget it. His 50 home run season notwithstanding.
I don't know about Harold Baines' stats but he had my favorite swing of any player I've ever seen. Even when he missed it was a thing of beauty.
There must be more to the value of a player than just numbers.
True story: When Baines was in high school his team played against my high school and they still talk about a ball he hit that landed in the infield of the softball field. I never measured but it looks at least 800 feet away.
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Here are some more who didn't make it:
HALL OF FAME HOPEFULS
A look at six of the 28 players on baseball's Hall of Fame ballot:
Bert Blyleven
Key statistics: 287 wins, 3,701 strikeouts, 60 shutouts
Case for: More strikeouts than Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver or Don Drysdale. Ninth on all-time shutouts list. Had one of the best curveballs in major leagues.
Case against: Winning percentage .534. Lost 17 games four times. Only once (strikeouts, 1985) did he lead his league in either strikeouts, wins or ERA.
Andre Dawson
Key statistics: 438 home runs, 1,591 RBI, 314 steals
Case for: Won 1987 NL MVP playing for last-place team. Had more than 1,000 extra-base hits; every other player with that achievement is in Hall of Fame. Excellent throwing arm.
Case against: Lifetime .279 hitter. Four 100-RBI seasons. Lifetime .323 on-base percentage.
Rich "Goose" Gossage
Key statistics: 310 saves, 1,502 strikeouts in 1,809 innings, nine-time All-Star
Case for: Key in evolution of modern bullpen. Four seasons of at least 25 saves and 100 innings pitched, an almost unheard-of workload for today's closers. Career saves and 3.01 ERA compare favorably with Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers' 341, 2.91.
Case against: Now ranks 17th on all-time saves list. Led league in saves three times. Pitched for seven teams in his last seven seasons.
Mark McGwire
Key statistics: 583 home runs, 10.6 at-bats a home run, .263 batting average
Case for: First to have 70-homer season. Five seasons of at least 52 home runs.
Case against: Nebulous testimony regarding possible steroid use turned off voters. Only Harmon Killebrew (.256) had lower batting average among first basemen in Hall. Hit .235 or worse in four of 15 full seasons.
Jack Morris
Key statistics: 254 wins, 3.90 ERA, 3,824 innings pitched
Case for: 6-1 lifetime postseason record, including 1991 World Series MVP award. Ten seasons of 240-plus innings pitched.
Case against: Forty-six wins shy of 300. His 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings put him well shy of Blyleven (6.7) and other borderline candidates.
Jim Rice
Key statistics: .298 career average, 382 homers, 2,452 hits
Case for: His homers and 1,451 RBI led AL hitters during his 16 years. Eight 100-RBI seasons. Won AL MVP in 1978, when his 406 total bases were most by AL player since Joe DiMaggio in 1937.
Case against: Failed to reach key milestone numbers.
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More on Harold Baines:
Why Harold Baines Shouldn't Make the Baseball Hall of Fame
Argument For
Baines obviously has some reasonably good lifetime numbers,
including 2783 hits and 1583 RBI, going into the 2000
season. He made 6 all-star games which is a reasonable
total. He's played in 21 seasons including 2000 and
hit .300 in a season of 100 games 8 times, which is a
decent number. He was a pretty good contact hitter, only
striking out 100 times in a season once.
I wish I could come up with some more good arguments here... but there really aren't any.
Argument Against
The basic argument against Baines is that he's never really
been a dominant player. He has some okay career totals, but
when you look at his seasons individually, none really
stand out. The only stat he ever led the league in was
slugging average, with .541 in 1984 (and he ended up tying
for 13th in the MVP vote, with 10 points). He never hit 30
HR in a year (29 in 1984 and 25 in 1982 and 1999 were his
highs), which is mediocre for a DH. He had only 3 100 RBI
seasons and no 100 run seasons. His baserunning was fairly
bad (50% SB rate going into 2000, and 290 GDP). While his
batting average is reasonably good (.292 heading into
2000), his OBP of .358 and SA of .469 are not that much
above average.
To take the argument to an extreme, imagine a player that played 25 years and hit 20 HR a year. This would give him 500 career HR, but this doesn't make him a great player, especially if he was a first baseman in the American League. It does seem that players are playing longer these days -- we will need to reevaluate career totals with respect to having longer careers. Take Pete Rose for instance, he played in the most games and had the most at bats of any major league player... he SHOULD have the most hits of any player, and if he didn't, it would be a negative.
I was just listening to the ESPN "Game Night" radio show (July 2, 2000). The announcers, I forget who, were making an argument for Baines for the Hall. One of them claimed, "Baines is *such* a great hitter." I'm just not convinced of this. His career TA is only .777, and look at his BEST seasons: .304/29/94 with a Total Average of .880, in 1984, or maybe .309/22/113, with a TA of only .733, in 1985 or perhaps .312/25/103 with a TA of .898, in 1999 (admittedly a very impressive season, at 40). But the reality is that these would be just average seasons for the real Hall of Famers of our generation. He's not even in the top 25 active players for average, OBA or slugging average.
I hope this isn't sounding like a rant yet... but to continue, the guy hasn't even had 500 ABs in a year since the 80s! (Okay, since 1989, and he did come close with 495 AB in 1996... but still.) His career TA heading in 2000 is just .777. He never had 90 runs in a season... never had 30 homers...never had 40 doubles... never 75 walks... just one .400 OBA season. Let's take his BEST single season numbers in every category: 640 AB, 198 H, 39 DB, 10 3B, 29 HR, 308 TB, 89 R, 113 RBI, 73 BB, 10 SB, .313 AVG, .403 OBA, .541 SLG. Please... do not tell me these are worthy of the Hall.
Keltner List
Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did
anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the
best player in baseball? It's safe to say Baines was never
considered the best player in baseball.
Was he the best player on his team? I'd say Carlton Fisk
was the best player on that White Sox team that won the
division in 1983, not Baines, but Baines was definitely the
best hitter on his team at that time.
Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he
the best player in the league at his position? Baines
certainly wasn't the best AL outfielder in his prime (early
to mid 80s). I'd certainly take Winfield, Henderson and
Rice above him. Tony Armas had some good years in there and
Dwight Evans is up there too. If you look at the National
League as well, he'd definitely be behind Dale Murphy, Tim
Raines and Tony Gwynn, at the minimum. Plus, Darryl
Strawberry was a much better player during the 1980s.
Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Baines
made the playoffs 5 years, 1983, 1990, 1992, 1997 and 1999.
In 1983, the Sox won by 20 games and then lost the ALCS, so
it's hard to say much about his impact there. Obviously no
OF is worth 20 wins, however he had a good year with 20 HR
and 99 RBI. In 1990 he was acquired by the A's in a late-
season trade with the Rangers. He had just 94 at bats and
they ended up losing the World Series to the Reds. In 1992
he was a regular with the A's. He hit that game-winning
home run in the 9th inning in game 1 of the ALCS off Jack
Morris of the Blue Jays, but the A's ended up losing that
series. In 1997 and 1999 he was a rent-a-player for the
Orioles and Indians, respectively. Both of those teams
ended up losing. He definitely deserves some credit for
being well-respected enough to be picked up three times mid-
season by playoff teams.
Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play
regularly after passing his prime? He was definitely a good
enough player to play past his prime, in fact he had
probably his second or third best season at the age of 40.
Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not
in the Hall of Fame? He's obviously not the very best
player in history not in the Hall, this doesn't even need
explaining.
Are most players who have comparable career statistics in
the Hall of Fame? His stats are well below average for a
Hall of Famer. He scores at exactly 3 on the Black Ink Test
(he led the AL in 1984 for the Chicago White Sox with a
slugging average of .541) which is terrible for an OF-DH.
Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? Baines
scores a 39 on the Hall of Fame standards test (average
Hall of Famers score a 50). Using the standard for active
players, or Career Monitor, he gets a 57 (100 is typical
for weaker Hall of Fame candidate). These two numbers peg
him as a borderline candidate, at best.
Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was
significantly better or worse than is suggested by his
statistics? Not better or worse than the statistics.
Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for
the Hall of Fame but not in? No player who was primarily a
DH has been elected to the Hall of Fame yet. Rafael
Palmeiro would be a better candidate. Edgar Martinez is a
much better hitter, although in a much shorter career.
How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an
MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? He never
won an MVP award. Never really came close. (A major point
against.)
How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-
star games did he play in? Did most of the other players
who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame? He played
in 6 All-Star games.
If this man were the best player on his team, would it be
likely that the team could win the pennant? I'm a bit
doubtful that a team whose best player was Harold Baines
would win the pennant. He was a rent-a-player for the 1990,
1997 and 1999 division winners, not a season-long starter.
The 1983 team was kind of a team of destiny (they won 25
games less the next year with virtually the same lineup,
except the addition of a 15-11 Tom Seaver and no major
injuries), with great pitching from LaMarr Hoyt and Rich
Dotson and very good seasons from Fisk, Kittle and Luzinski
as well as Baines. On the 1992 team there were several
better players (Rickey Henderson, Canseco, McGwire and
Eckersley at the minimum).
What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he
responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new
equipment? Did he change the game in any way? I think
Baines and Chili Davis defined a position of being an
ageless DH who kind of drifted around the AL putting up
reasonably good numbers. I don't think this is really
central to a Hall of Fame argument but he did help to
define a type of player, at least in my mind.
Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and
character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines,
instructs us to consider? Baines is and has been a solid
citizen.
Decision
I don't think Baines should make it. Nothing personal, of
course, it's just that while watching him play or looking
at his stats he just doesn't seem like a Hall of Famer. If
he were a catcher or a shortstop he might have the
offensive numbers, but when you consider he was a DH for
most of his career, he just doesn't compare well with the
best players of his era. That he'll end up with over 2800
hits pretty much serves to illustrate the fallacy
of "automatic" totals by which a player makes the Hall.
Bill James says the Hall of Fame process should be decided
not by one or two facts but by the weight of the
evidence... it has got to be against Harold Baines making
the Hall.
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