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Yeah, it's that time of year. Also, yeah, fuck the Oscars and blah, blah, blah. Whatever. For my own amusement, and for the bored reader who has an interest in making Oscar predictions, here's my analysis:
-Best Picture:
"Memento": fills the indie spot, and is the favorite of the year of most so far. Good following on video. Counting against it: early year release.
"Ali": the movie that wants to be nominated for an Oscar. It will all depend whether or not it actually is any good. Michael Mann's latest movies have been good, so maybe this one will work.
"A Beautiful Mind": A Dreamworks film. Starring the most popular actor, Russel Crowe. Ron Howard already did an Oscar nominee before, and last year's biggest hit. And sounds a bit like "Shine". Against: Akiva Goldsman wrote the screenplay, although he merely adapted a novel, and he's usually alright when doing that (e.g. "A Time to Kill").
"The Shipping News": Miramax. Lasse Hallstrom. Judi Dench. You get the drift.
Other possibilities: "The Majestic": may be a bit too sappy. Has the advantage of being directed by Frank Darabont. "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring": great production values, probable blockbuster, and apparently good performances, but the story on its own is good as a whole trilogy. Nominating just the first installment isn't likely. "Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone": blockbuster, crowd fave, good production values. But not really that great. "Black Hawk Down": could be the surprise. "The Others" may also be the dark horse, as it is a sleeper hit.
-Best actor: Ben Kingsley (best reviews so far this year), Russell Crowe (fave actor around, and gets to play a schizo), Sean Penn (plays a retard), Billy Bob Thornton (great performance in "The Man Who Wasn't There"). Want to be: Will Smith, Kevin Spacey, Jim Carrey. Less likely: Guy Pierce (although if he did get nominated and win, it would be 3 years in a row that an "LA Confidential" actor wins bets actor).
-Best actress:
Nicole Kidman (for "The Others", and she's been all over the tabloids this year; may otherwise get nominated for "Moulin Rouge"), Michelle Pfeiffer (perennial favorite), Sissy Spacek (perennial favorite, good reviews).
-Best director: Michael Mann, and just about anyone else.
-Best supporting actor and actress: I wouldn't bother right now, although Cate Blanchet is getting good reviews for "The Shipping News".
-Best foreign film: "Amelie"
-Technical stuff: share it among "Fellowship of the Rings", "Harry Potter", "Planet of the Apes", "Pearl Harbor", and perhaaaaaaaaaaaps "The Mummy Returns" and "Jurassic Park III". "The Man Who Wasn't There" may get a cinematography nomination, and "Memento" and "Ocean's 11" an editing nomination. If "Black Hawk Down" has Ridley Scott's usual top-notch production values, then it will also get several nominations. That's about it.
Yeah, a hard to predict year, due to lack of quality stuff, unless it is all stuffed at the end of the year, with things yet to be released.
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