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Can you look at the history of the Academy's BP nominees and say that with a straight face? Do you know how many gritty complex exposés have been passed over for simple feelgood movies of the year? Let's look at the other possible contenders:
"Crouching Tiger" -- war epic, most critically acclaimed movie of the year by a mile, it's in like flin (if that's how you spell "flin")
"Gladiator" -- war epic, 50's throwback pic, "CTHD" needs an American challenger, it's in, too
"Almost Famous" -- feelgood
"Billy Elliot" -- feelgood
"Erin Brockovich" -- feelgood
"Traffic" & "Quills" -- not so feelgood
That doesn't mean I believe "Traffic" can't get nominated even if "Erin" does -- knowing us Americans, we'd probably just kick out "Billy Elliot." But I very seriously doubt that if it comes down to "Traffic" vs. "Erin" that "Traffic" would get the nod. I do think that Soderbergh will get nominated for Best Director for "Traffic" regardless of if he gets nominated for "Erin" -- the directors have a different set of criteria from the average Academy member. For that same reason, I actually think there's a good chance that "Traffic" could get 4 or 5 Oscar nominations -- and still not get a BP nomination. Admittedly, that's a rare thing to occur and I'm probably playing against the odds here -- but that's where the big payoff comes, baby!
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